September 1st is always the best time of year for a sports fan. College and professional football is starting, and the Yankees are always right there (always alongside the Red Sox) to win the American League pennant. During this time of year, everything in baseball is thrown on its head. Teams are trading players in last minute efforts to boost their rosters for the playoffs (even after the trade deadline), rosters expand to 40 players, and the divisions are starting to shape up for the post season.
During this time, managers are trying to set in stone their pitching rotation for the playoffs. This couldn’t be more true than for Joe Girardi and the New York Yankees. The obvious ace of the staff is CC Sabathia. There is no question that he will be starting game one of the playoffs. But who will be number two? I get a lot of grief for this, but I say, if the Yankees are at home, go with A.J. Burnett.
You are probably shaking your head right now, but let’s look at his numbers.
This year, his number of walks and hits per innings pitched (WHIP) is 1.44. There are 37 starting pitchers in baseball that posted better overall WHIP’s than A.J. However, in my opinion, this number is misleading.
I always had a hunch that A.J. was a better pitcher at home than away. I decided to compile data over the course of his Yankee’s career in an effort in trying to justify my feeling.
Here is what I found. Over A.J.’s 27 appearances this year (all starts), he has pitched at home 15 times and away 12 times. However, his WHIP’s are significantly different. At home, his WHIP is 1.25 and away it is 1.73. If you look at that over the course of an entire ball game, that is more than four less base runners per game! He gives up about 2.6 less earned runs per game at home, and he is averaging one less walk per nine innings. These are all big numbers, especially when you are comparing them to the options the Yankees have. Colon has a higher WHIP (1.35) than Burnett at home, and has pitched fewer innings. However, Colon’s WHIP away from Yankee Stadium is an impressive 1.11, ideal for a game three away start for the Yanks. Hughes has been out all year and we are not really sure what to expect from him. He can be lights out or get hit for 10 runs. Nova, who is a fantastic pitcher, is a rookie and doesn’t have that big game experience, plus has an at home WHIP of 1.52. Garcia, who just came off the disabled list, has an at home WHIP of 1.35.
The reason why I am looking at WHIP is that it is an extremely telling measure of a pitcher’s success. The more hitters that get on base, the greater likelihood that the batter scores. With more men on base, an error or routine pop-up or groundball can mean a run. The less runners on base means the less chance of giving up runs, and a greater margin of error for the team to get out of an inning unscathed. Also, WHIP measures the pitcher’s ability to get outs. The pitcher is in control of walks and hits. When he pitches the ball, no other player has control of the location or type of pitch. There are times when teammates make exceptional plays that take away hits, in essence, lowering the pitcher’s WHIP. However, routine balls that should be outs turning into hits even this out and judgment calls by umpires that go against the pitcher.
The point I am trying to show is that A.J. is a good pitcher at home. His big flaw is the number of homeruns he gives up at Yankee Stadium (the short right field does not help). If the Yankees are at home in a big game, (is CC has already thrown that series) throw A.J. out there. I would love to see him bring a win to the Yanks.
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